Follow him to the promise land

I really like Roy Halladay and the Phils today against the Giants in San Fran. I took the Phils -1.5. The Giants have been struggling and put up zero runs yesterday against the Cards. Halladay is 4-0 with a 0.82 ERA.

Heading to Hollywood Park.

4 years.

Baseball Bets

Made a shitload of baseball bets today... To the last guy who bet 2k, don't bet 2k on these games, I don't love them like I loved the Jazz. But here's a head's up, there's a guy on the covers forum that has started the baseball season on fire, so I've gone with all of his picks today and the Phillies pick is my own. The link to the guy's picks are here. Thanks to V for the tip.

Today's picks:
Diamondbacks ML
Giants ML
White Sox ML
Red Sox -1.5 (cancelled - rain)
Twins ML
Brewers/Nats over 9
Phillies -1.5 (this is my big bet)

and this parlay:
Phils
Cards
Yanks
Red Sox (cancelled - rain)
Mariners

I'll revisit this and highlight the ones I won/lost.

Gonna go play at HP today also. Had a disaster date last night.

peace.

Pick of the Day

I love the Jazz -7.5 at Golden State tonight.

Poker has been going better. I've tightened up and tried to stop bluffing as much but it's so hard not to. Just playing less hands in general. Boring but gotta do it until I get back into my zone.

4 years..

Dealing with Bullshit: 101

The following is an AIM conversation I had with my "bookie" after I had texted him requesting my payout for the week:

xxx620 (11:58:38 AM): yo
xxx620 (11:59:14 AM): you should text your boy xxx. he owes me money and some of that money he owes me is what i owe you
ME (12:48:04 PM): yo man.. do you realize how unethical this is on several levels?
ME (12:48:24 PM): i understand it sucks that he owes you, but i have people that owe me money and i'm not gonna tell you that once i get paid, you get paid
xxx620 (12:50:57 PM): i don't have any money. i had to spot him 2 weeks ago for not paying
ME (12:51:23 PM): so you have no one backing you?
xxx620 (12:51:30 PM): everyone else pays on time and i can pay the winners, that's how its supposed to be
xxx620 (12:52:39 PM): i've already had to take out my savings because ppl have jipped me before. i'm supposed to get a check in the mail for a few hundred bucks so if its there i'll cash it and pay you the rest tomorrow
xxx620 (12:53:07 PM): i'm sorry about this and i try to make everyone happy but its hard when ppl don't pay me for 2 weeks and i owe ppl.
ME (12:54:24 PM): i dunno i assumed you were working under someone and had a plan worked out, that's how a lot of bookies do it. i mean what happens if you get hit hard and everyone has a good week?

...and that's when he completely stops replying.

Just to educate you guys in the world of professional gambling, the way a lot of bookies and their "affiliates" work is this (and this is based on my rough understanding):

If you can book all your clients wins/losses, you get the full profit.

If you can't, you can make a deal with the bookie over you that he covers the losses and you get 10-20% of the profits, assuming you are making a profit. If this is the deal you have worked out and you have a week where you lose to your clients, you don't start making your 10% again until your clients have started losing again and you're making a profit again for your book.

Apparently the guy I'm dealing with has nothing of the sort and is running a bullshit operation.

Not only that, but according to my short convo with him, he wants me to track down the money that my friend owes him as if that's my job. This is where I have a big problem with the way he's handling the situation.

He should never be revealing how much someone else owes him or how long they have owed him, I don't care if it's my brother or whatever, it's supposed to be private.

This concerns me greatly because if this guy has a week where all of his clients win, he's going to be assed out. I mean, even if he has a week where his clients end up + more than he can cover, what is he going to do?

You can guess what my next move is.

Leaking

I was sent home early from work today for losing too much money. I've been playing pretty bad. I'm that guy at the table that has flashes of brilliance but overall is playing losing poker. I know this and it's not a good thing. I'm playing well enough to beat the game right now but I'm not adjusting and others are and basically it's leaving me with SEVERAL leaks in my game. And while I'm on the subject, I have several leaks in my life.

Unfortunately this post won't be as long as it should be but I'm going to list my poker leaks for not because it'll help me refocus by putting them down here. It'll also be interesting to revisit this list in the coming weeks.

Leaks:

1a. Leak: Playing too many hands. A friend of mine at the casino called me "Somalius" or something like that because it's a famous online player who is known for playing 50% of hands dealt and still is a huge winner. I don't play quite that many hands but you get the point. I realize no one reading this really knows me but my style would definitely be considered "action player" so the more pots I get in, the more I try to outplay, outdraw and out-bluff people, which many times results in unnecessary big hits to my stack. The benefit is I definitely hit people from the blind side many times but I think I'm just opening up way too much. Today I lost a huge pot with 5-6 offsuit when I turned a missed OEFD (open ended flush draw) into a big river bluff after I check-raised the turn when an overcard hit. Another hand I lost a big pot with J-9 two-pair against T-8 straight. I made a horrendous call on the river when the villain check-raised me huge.

1b. Fix: Limit myself to playing hands in late position and restricting my range to suited cards so at least I'm picking up redraws.

2a. Leak: Calling too many bets and making too many big payoffs. I have now established a reputation as a calling station, which is mainly because I'm in so many hands so I'm also sniffing out a lot of bluffs. However, a lot of players are starting to bet a lot bigger at me when they have made hands and I've been making some bad payoffs. I can think of several occasions where I knew I was beat on the river but I still paid off...kind of by habit. I just couldn't bring myself to make the laydown.

2b. Fix: Develop the discipline to recognize when I'm beat. I have to narrow down my opponent's range and capability to bluff against me. I need to take more time to think about the strength of my opponent's bet and the fact that they know I'm a tough person to bluff.

Alright those are my main two leaks and I'm going to work hard on them. Another leak that really has to do with the first leak is my patience. I've noticed that I've become very impatient at times. I've never been one to blame dealers but now I catch myself looking at the dealer as if it's his/her fault that I'm not winning. I definitely need to be more patient.

Good luck, my March so far has been just like february.. up, down, up, down, up, down. So tomorrow should be up.

My weekend goal is +$6k.

I might head to the Bike because they have a big 150k GTD tournament this weekend so there should be a lot of people there. Not sure, I'm going to hit the home turf at noon.

4years..

February 2010 Numbers

I'm happy to say that I had a productive month during February at the poker table despite a few disastrous days. However, I'm ashamed to say that I spent all the profits on shoes, sports betting, strippers, and bottle service. I'm going to plug this leak this month by eliminating bottle service from my bad spending habits.

Day of Ugh

The drive home is the worst part after playing some horrible poker and losing my ass off. Unfortunately it's a drive that I've had many times. Getting lost in thinking about how horrible I played against some pretty bad players (and some good ones) and then noticing that I'm going 95 down the 405 south. Hate it.

I sat down at the Commerce tournament and immediately got a card rush. AA, KK, AK...all held up. I built my stack up then got JJ and the flop came 4-6-7 and I doubled some guy up by the river when his 3-5 was good as gold (obviously). Good play by him since I proved he had the implied odds. The problem was I knew he was playing any suited cards from what he had shown earlier and the flop had two spades (he had diamonds) so I was betting big at him. Anyways that led to my downfall. I played too many hands and got in too many weird spots where I was bluffing too much for a tournament. Exit.

Then I went to another casino and got in a cash game and played horrendously. So bad I don't even want to replay it in my head. Basically made some bad calls on a guy who is a good and extremely aggressive player. First time he made a flush on the same card I made top two with AJ, second time he rivered bottom two pair when I had top/top and sent me on a vacation to value town both times. After this, I resorted to shoving with a flush draw and then giving my money away with middle pair when someone had an overpair. Dusted and disgusted.

Today I made a few sports picks, here's what I have (you can probably make money if you take all the opposite picks):

$100 Celts/Knicks under 197.5
$200 Cavs/Hornets over 200
$200 Suns/Thunder over 204.5

4-Team Parlay
Hornets +11.5
Grizzlies +5
Suns/Thunder over 204.5
Warriors +1

4 years. Refocus.